HOW EFFECTIVE IS GOOGLE TRENDS IN PREDICTING ELECTION RESULTS?

In the recent election of France, it is claimed that Google Trends was able to predict the winner since the predicted data was so close to actual election results.

What most people don’t say is that the pre-election polls / survey also had a similar prediction.

In the case of the Philippines there is a wide difference between what the surveys say, and what Google Trends predicts.

Some say Google Trends predicted the same for PDU30 back in 2016. But it’s the same case. Poll surveys also predicted win of PDU30.

Well, this is how Google explains the effectivity of Google Trends in predicting results:

https://support.google.com/trends/answer/4365533?hl=en

Hence, Google Trends say it’s Leni. Scientific surveys and 7-11 cups survey say otherwise. The question is, who is right and who is wrong?

WE WILL KNOW WHO IS RIGHT ON MAY 10

Is Google Trends data a good predictor of election victory than known scientific poll surveys? We will know the answer AFTER the elections on May 10.

Many educated “economists” hawk that it is. Throughout many weeks, they have called strongly for everyone to look at rally numbers, Google Trends and other anecdotal evidence to claim victory.

Personally, this has made me doubt the intelligence of such so-called Philippine economists. Are they that biased towards their candidate they forget basic statistics and exonomics? They did take statistics when they took economics, correct?

How can one be so blind to insist on their “truth,” and call another party misleading or peddlers of fake news, when they themselves do the same when facts do not fit their narratives? Is this not too double standard?

I personally doubt it is. It’s not that I’m vouching for BBM. I am neutral to him and I am very glad Ping is an available option. But I would like to believe what I learned in economics and statistics, and trust objective survey numbers and hard data before putting my bets on Google Trends.

SO WHO IS CORRECT?

Let us see who is correct and biased then when the election results come out on May 10-ish.

If I’m wrong and Leni wins, I will be happy to be corrected. Google Trends pala is effective and debunks objective surveys. So yay.

I will also of course support a Leni government if it happens. Whoever has the majority vote has the people’s mandate, and EVERYONE must support whom the people chose.

But what if Leni loses and all the scientific surveys were right?

If so, I hope all the so-called established economists and naysayers, who tout Google Trends to be the true data point against scientific surveys who say otherwise, will care enough to apologize and take responsibility for their wrong belief. Deliberately or not, they misled the Filipino public in using an obviously weak data point to make it seem as if their candidate is winning.

Was it an intentional psychological strategy to tout Google Trends to make people believe their candidate was winning? Or was it just blind bias, because they desperately want their candidate to win, so they too threw away their objectivity for 6 months because the numbers did not suit their personal narratives?

Regardless of the reason, we the “educated” (though my personal belief is a degree does not make one automatically smart) must always remain factual, unbiased and balanced as much as we can. Pwede namang magkamali. Wag lang maging mayabang and double standard na ayaw umamin pag may mali, kasi walang integrity yan.

So I look forward to the results of this May 9 elections. Regardless of the victor, this 2022 elections is truly a good case study on statistics, economics, psychology, culture, leadership, marketing and many other things.

And I look forward to being proven wrong if I am, as much as I look forward to seeing others be corrected if they are. I hope they too will be humble to apologize for all their misleading messaging throughout the campaign season, because if not, nakakasira talaga sa trabaho nila kasi very biased ang reporting nila lalo na if may personal agenda.

Less than 2 weeks to go!

Let us all pray for a clean and orderly election this May 9. Vote wisely!